Fourth Stimulus Check: Unlikely Amid Recession Concerns - Analysis

It's way too soon to bank on a follow-up stimulus check.

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Key points

• A good 81% of Americans fear a recession as per a recent survey.
• The economy is not on the verge of imploding, and as such, a fourth stimulus check probably isn't heading our way anytime soon.

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In March of 2021, the American Rescue Plan was signed into law, and within weeks of it passing, stimulus checks started hitting recipients' bank accounts. It's now been over a year since Americans have been entitled to that level of widespread aid. But it's also been difficult to make the case for a follow-up check.

Over the past year, the U.S. economy has improved tremendously. The national unemployment rate has dropped substantially, and the labor market is so strong that job applicants have more leeway to command higher wages.

In spite of that, many Americans have concerns about the direction the economy is heading in. In a recent CNBC + Acorns Invest in You survey, 81% of respondents said they think the U.S. is likely to experience a recession at some point in 2022.

But while it's easy to see why those concerns exist, the reality is that our economy is not on the brink of collapse. And as such, we're unlikely to see a fourth stimulus check arrive anytime soon.

The situation isn't that dire

It's easy to see why some people may be worried about the economy taking a drastic turn for the worse. Inflation has been soaring, to the point where living costs are unsustainable for a lot of people. And many believe that the Ukraine conflict will impact the U.S. economy in a negative way.

Despite those legitimate concerns, many economic experts insist that a recession isn't imminent. If anything, the economy is at a very solid point, at least from an unemployment perspective.

For the week ended April 2, the number of newly-filed jobless claims amounted to 166,000. That represents the lowest number of new weekly claims since late 1968.

All told, the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits last week came to 1.72 million. That may seem like a lot of people at first glance. But for context, that number sat at 18.4 million one year earlier, so clearly, we've come a long way on the jobless front.

Don't bank on getting aid

Lawmakers recognize that many Americans are struggling with inflated living costs. Some have even proposed giving out stimulus funds to combat higher gas prices. A gas-related stimulus, however, is somewhat unlikely, especially in light of the fact that the Biden administration plans to tap into its oil reserves in an effort to help Americans pay less money at the pump.

But should the public expect a wide round of stimulus checks similar to the ones that went out under the American Rescue Plan? No. The economic situation is worlds different today than it was back then, and while inflation may be a burden, it's not the same thing as having millions of Americans out of work with no job prospects or vaccines for protection.

Of course, we can, and should, all hope that inflation levels taper off in time. But inflation alone won't justify a fourth stimulus check, and neither will recession-related concerns -- especially ones economists aren't rushing to echo.